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	<title>Ceasefire Magazine &#187; cuba</title>
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	<description>Ceasefire is a quarterly cultural and political publication, concerned with producing high-quality journalism, review and analysis. We cover a wide range of topics – from Arthouse to Žižek.</description>
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		<title>South of the Border The view from Latin America</title>
		<link>http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/south-of-the-border-the-view-from-latin-america/</link>
		<comments>http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/south-of-the-border-the-view-from-latin-america/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Nov 2010 23:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>hich</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[New in Ceasefire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South of The Border]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[air disaster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[america]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[border]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[costa rica]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cuba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drug war]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[landslide]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[latin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mexico]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[south]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[venezuela]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/?p=4100</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/new-in-ceasefire/south-of-the-border-the-view-from-latin-america/"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-366" title="South of the Border" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1289055158_0.jpg" alt="" width="618" height="408" /></a><strong> <size=4> In the news this week in Latin America: no light at the end of the tunnel in Mexican drug war, 68 die in Cuban air disaster, deadly landslide in Costa Rica and Venezuelan ambassador accuses Spanish border police of “abuse”. Ceasefire correspondent Tom Kavanagh delivers his weekly round up of what's been going on south of the border.</a><strong> <size=4></strong></size>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4105" title="1288823016_1" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1288823016_1.jpg" alt="" width="618" height="412" /></p>
<p>By <strong>Tom Kavanagh</strong></p>
<p><strong>10,000 murders so far in 2010: no light at the end of the tunnel for Mexican drug war </strong></p>
<p>“10,000 murders in 10 months” screamed the headline of Mexican daily La Reforma (Reform) this week, drawing attention to the cost of cyclical violence which has in recent years brought misery to a country already suffering from entrenched poverty and social disenfranchisement.</p>
<p>The figures will surprise few observers, but nonetheless represent a shocking toll in a country with a population less than twice that of Great Britain.</p>
<p>The report contained the caveat “until yesterday” underneath the alarming statistics, a necessary inclusion in a land where an average of 33 murders are committed every day: more than one every hour.</p>
<p>The numbers are already outdated, as a shallow grave containing 18 bodies was discovered in the Pacific city of Acapulco on Wednesday. The corpses are thought to belong to a party of Mexican tourists from the state of Michoacán, who had been missing since the end of September.</p>
<p>Incidents of this nature have become commonplace as rival gangs involved in the lucrative drug trade battle for dominance, with ordinary citizens invariably caught in the crossfire.</p>
<p>Cartels have targeted politicians and police chiefs at will and with little danger of retribution, to the point where some sitting mayors in the northern border states have chosen to relocate to the United States and carry out their duties over the phone or by commuting to the towns they serve.</p>
<p>Murder statistics have been steadily increasing since President Calderón announced a crackdown on cartels shortly after taking office in late 2006. There were 2,275 murders in Mexico in 2007, followed by 5,207 in 2008 and 6,587 in 2009.</p>
<p>Authorities have struggled to combat armed groups in no small part due to corruption within their own ranks, as police officers on meagre wages are routinely enticed to provide impunity to cartels and to pursue rival groups by way of financial incentives or under threat of violence, or a combination of the two.</p>
<p>Those local officials who do make a point of attempting to root out corruption and violence in their districts are targeted and often killed in brutal fashion in order to send a message to others who might be tempted to interfere with cartel business.</p>
<p>A breakdown of the 10,000 killed so far this year shows that 798 of the victims had been tortured and 326 decapitated. There were 637 police officers among the dead, 52 state soldiers and 276 adolescents.</p>
<p>Statistics show that more and more people with no connection whatsoever to either state forces or cartels are being killed, either in retaliation or as a result of mistaken identity, however the bulk of the dead is comprised by young males involved in clandestine criminality.</p>
<p>Of Mexico’s 32 states, only south-eastern Yucatán was immune from the wave of drug-related homicides. However, violence is far more prevalent in the region bordering the United States than in most of the country.</p>
<p>Observers note that while Mexico’s police force has always suffered with underfunding and comparatively high levels of corruption, “narcodollars” have taken a horrendous toll on overall security and have compromised significant elements of the country’s law enforcement bodies.</p>
<p>On Sunday seven people aged between 20 and 25 were killed and one wounded following an attack on a house in Ciudad Juárez, one of Mexico’s most notoriously violent municipalities which sits just over the border from the U.S. town of El Paso, Texas.</p>
<p>Juárez experienced its most bloody month so far this year in October, with 300 people falling victim to murder in a city of around 1.4 million.</p>
<p><strong>68 die in Cuban air disaster </strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4103" title="1288975565_extras_albumes_0" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1288975565_extras_albumes_0.jpg" alt="" width="618" height="412" /></p>
<p>There were no survivors as a plane operated by Cuban state carrier Aerocaribbean crashed on Thursday morning in the province of Sancti Spíritus, with all 61 passengers and 7 crew on board perishing.</p>
<p>The ATR-72 craft had been making a charter flight from Santiago de Cuba, the island’s second city, to the capital Havana, and the cause of the crash is still not known, with authorities delaying the removal of debris from the site until further conclusions can be drawn.</p>
<p>There were 40 Cubans and 28 foreigners, including nine Argentinians and seven Mexicans, among the dead. It is the largest air disaster involving an Aerocaribbean plane since the company’s founding in 1982.</p>
<p>The crash surpasses the company’s hitherto most deadly crash which took place in 1992 when 34 people including the Dominican national chess team died after an Aerocaribbean flight went down in the Dominican Republic.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-4104" title="INF_NOTA44520_996" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/INF_NOTA44520_996-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" />Eyewitnesses reported seeing the plane make sudden movements in the air before descending sharply into mountainous terrain and bursting into flames.</p>
<p>It has been reported that Flight 883 had taken off in adverse weather conditions, with tropical storm Tomas threatening to hit the east of the island in due course, however the Cuban Aeronautical Institute said it was too early to substantiate the reason for the disaster.</p>
<p>Aero Caribbean is owned by the Cuban military but functions as an exclusively civilian carrier. It is the first air crash involving a Cuban plane for eight years. In 2002 a Soviet-era Antonov plane containing 16 people, including four British tourists, crashed en route to Cayo Coco, a popular tourist destination to the north of the mainland, leaving no survivors.</p>
<p>The plane involved in the most recent tragedy was of Franco-Italian construction, having been sold to the Cuban government by manufacturer Avions de Transport Regional, and had racked up 25,000 flying hours on more than 34,500 separate flights since 1995.</p>
<p><strong>At least 21 confirmed dead in Costa Rican landslide </strong></p>
<p>http://estaticos.elmundo.es/albumes/2010/11/04/derrumbe_en_costa_rica/1288903454_extras_albumes_0.jpg</p>
<p>21 people were killed and a further 30 are missing following a landslide in the west of the province of San José, which also contains the nation’s capital city.</p>
<p><a href="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1288903454_extras_albumes_0.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-4102" title="1288903454_extras_albumes_0" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1288903454_extras_albumes_0-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a>Heavy rains had hit the region earlier in the week, and houses and vehicles in the district of San Antonio de Escazú were buried under mounds of earth and stone which slid two kilometres down a hill in the area, crushing everything in their path.</p>
<p>The head of the country’s National Meteorological Institute, Werner Stolitz, said that Costa Rica had suffered its worst rainfall “in years”, and that three times the average total rainfall for November had fallen in just a few days.</p>
<p>Four more people were killed in other incidents, bringing the confirmed death toll since rains began last Tuesday to 25.</p>
<p>The National Emergencies Commission has already evacuated 3,750 people from affected regions, and classes were suspended for pupils at state schools in the centre of the country and on the Pacific coast.</p>
<p>In the affected zones 800,000 people are without drinking water following damage to infrastructure by heavy rainfall, which also destroyed sections of highway and caused several bridges to collapse.</p>
<p>High-risk areas are now under red alert, with the government warning that adverse weather conditions should not be taken lightly.</p>
<p><strong>Venezuelan ambassador accuses Spanish border police of “abuse” </strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-4101" title="1289055158_0" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/1289055158_0-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" />The Venezuelan ambassador to Spain, Isaías Rodríguez, has accused Spanish border patrol agents of “verbally abusing” him as he returned to Madrid from Caracas. Rodríguez was held up for 15 minutes at Madrid’s Barajas airport, where he claims border guards dealt with him “in a manifestly hostile and disrespectful manner”.</p>
<p>A communiqué issued by the Venezuelan Embassy said that a border control agent shouted “get lost” to the ambassador when he attempted to present his passport.</p>
<p>When he protested at the perceived mistreatment, he was surrounded by Spanish police who took his passport from him, returning it 15 minutes later without explanation.</p>
<p>The embassy said the incident further evidenced the “hostile, abusive and impolite attitude which some of the staff at Barajas airport display towards Venezuelans travelling to Spain.” The airport attributed the sequence of events to a “misunderstanding” regarding the ambassador’s arrival time.</p>
<p>Accepting the apology, Rodríquez said he would be pursuing the issue of mistreatment of Venezuelans at the hands of Spanish airport authorities with the country’s Foreign Minister. The Confederation of Spanish Police, a union representing 25,000 officers, said the ambassador had taken advantage of a “private incident” in order to “attack the Spanish police in a crude fashion.”</p>
<p>Accusations of mistreatment and heavy-handedness against Spanish border guards are not a new phenomenon. In March 2008, a planeload of 30 Brazilians including students due to attend a conference in Portugal were denied entry to Spain and were returned to Brazil despite presenting official documentation which legally entitled them to enter the Iberian country.</p>
<p>This incident sparked a diplomatic row which saw Brazilian authorities retaliate by denying several Spaniards entry to the country. Over 3,000 Brazilians were prevented from entering Spain in 2007, despite having adequate documents in many cases.</p>
<p>Tensions between Madrid and Caracas have run high in recent weeks after Spanish MPs accused Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez of having links to ETA, the armed Basque separatist group which has repeatedly targeted attacks at civilians in Spain as part of an ongoing insurgency which seeks total autonomy for the Basque country. Chávez called the accusations “tendentious”.</p>
<p>Ambassador Rodríguez caused a stir in Spain a month ago when he implied that two members of ETA who had “confessed” to receiving training in Venezuela had done so under duress. He maintained that he had “serious doubts” as to whether or not the confessions had been made “entirely voluntarily”.</p>
<p>President Chávez has attracted the ire of the Spanish establishment before. In late 2007, King Juan Carlos I of Spain famously exclaimed “why don’t you shut up?” at the Venezuelan leader who had been interrupting a speech made by Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero at the Ibero-American Summit in Santiago, Chile.</p>
<p><strong>Tom Kavanagh</strong>, a writer and activist based in Argentina, is Latin America correspondent for Ceasefire. His column on Latin American affairs appears every Monday.</p>
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		<title>South of the BorderThe view from Latin America</title>
		<link>http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/south-of-the-border-9/</link>
		<comments>http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/south-of-the-border-9/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Oct 2010 03:54:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>hich</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[New in Ceasefire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South of The Border]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[america]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bolivia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brazil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Castro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cuba]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dilma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[honduras]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[latin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lula]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peru]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[raul]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[south]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[venezuela]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[zelaya]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/?p=3324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<a href="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/2010/10/south-of-the-border-9/"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-366" title="correa" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/dilma1.jpg" alt="" width="618" height="408" /></a><strong> <size=4> In the news this week in Latin America: Argentina vents its anger at the IMF, an internet super cable to link Cuba and Venezuela, ousted Honduran president Zelaya speaks out, Dilma a step away from the Brazilian presidency and much more. Ceasefire correspondent Tom Kavanagh delivers his weekly round up of what's been going on south of the border.</a><strong> <size=4></strong></size>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/fmigohome.jpg" alt="" title="fmigohome" width="618" height="463" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3354" />By <strong>Tom Kavanagh</strong></p>
<p><strong>Argentine Central Bank president slams “failed” IMF policies </strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3326" title="delpont" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/delpont-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" />The president of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), Mercedes Marcó del Pont, slammed the International Monetary Fund on Friday, decrying the body for “trying to make us believe that the policies which caused the [economic] crisis will form part of the solution.”</p>
<p>Marcó Del Pont was speaking at the annual assembly of the IMF and World Bank, held in Washington D.C.</p>
<p>She said that the Fund was attempting to force “failed formulas” down the throats of poorer nations, and charged that, “in reality, what the Fund is incentivising is an exchange rate appreciation that will, as a consequence, mean that developed countries export their economic stagnation to emerging economies.”</p>
<p>She affirmed that developing countries had an agreement “not to allow this to happen”, and said that there was a general consensus among economists from developing nations that recognised “the danger of exchange rate appreciation and [the risks] that come with short-term capital investments. That&#8217;s why we&#8217;re not going to allow the developed world to use our dynamic internal markets as a last resort.”</p>
<p>The Bank&#8217;s president said IMF projections for the development of the Argentinian economy were wrong, and has proposed applying controls to the movement of speculative investments “because of the risks this generates in emerging economies”, thus flying in the face of IMF diktats which favour no or low restrictions on the cross-border flow of capital. “When one looks at it from a wider perspective, the IMF has been getting a lot wrong in terms of its projections for Argentina&#8217;s economy”, charged Marcó del Pont.</p>
<p>The IMF is deeply unpopular in Argentina, with the organisation widely condemned for the programme of severe austerity measures that slashed public services and depreciated the value of the nation&#8217;s currency in the wake of the 2001 financial crisis which consumed the country following years of neoliberal economic policy encouraged by foreign financial institutions and governments.</p>
<p>As Argentina began to emerge from the ravages of military dictatorship at the end of the 1980&#8242;s, the government began to auction off national holdings such as the country&#8217;s water reserves and embarked on a fire sale whereby recently privatised former state companies were sold to foreign investors at basement-level prices in a model consistent with the legacy the IMF has left in much of Latin America. This was accompanied by deregulation of the economy and the erosion of restrictions on the inflow and outflow of capital, meaning foreign corporations took effective ownership of significant chunks of the Argentine economy.</p>
<p>When the money external investors had been pumping in to buy up formerly state-owned assets dried up, the government was left needing to borrow heavily in order to meet its budget deficit, and this necessitated taking billions of dollars worth of loans from the International Monetary Fund. In order to meet its debt obligations, with interest rates on “emergency loans” often as high as 70%, successive governments were forced to slash the budget allocations for public services, with a marked decline in living standards, real wages and employment figures the result.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3327" title="imfprotest" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/imfprotest-225x300.jpg" alt="" width="225" height="300" />This daubing in Buenos Aires reads: “US$9.5 billion for the IMF, nothing for health and education”<br />
In 2001, BBC Newsnight journalist Greg Palast was anonymously sent several boxes of confidential IMF and World Bank documents which detailed the process by which developing nations&#8217; economies could be gutted intentionally in order to open resource-rich nations up to greater economic liberalisation and domination by foreign banks and corporations.</p>
<p>One of the documents which dealt specifically with Argentina, entitled “Technical Memorandum of Understanding” and dated September 5 2000, which had been signed by then president of Argentina&#8217;s Central Bank, Pedro Pou, and addressed to IMF Managing Director Horst Kohler, informs that the IMF forced Argentina to cut its budget deficit from US$5.3 billion in 2000 to US$4.1 billion in 2001 by slashing public spending, despite the country&#8217;s already precarious economic situation.</p>
<p>The government was forced to cut public sector wages by up to 15% and encouraged to undertake the “rationalization of certain privileged pension benefits”. The IMF agreed an emergency loan of some US$26 billion to Argentina in 2001, of which Palast remarks, “Argentina&#8217;s people don&#8217;t net one penny&#8230; Little of the bail-out money escapes New York where it lingers to pay interest to US creditors holding the debt.” The IMF document goes on to call for “reform of the revenue sharing system”, which Palast lambasts as a “kinder, gentler way of stating that the US banks will be paid by siphoning off tax receipts earmarked for education and other provincial services.”</p>
<p>In a model now familiar to the populations of Greece, Spain, Iceland and the United Kingdom among others, public services were heavily cut in order to facilitate the repayment of loans to foreign creditors, with an inordinate percentage of that money earmarked for the interest which had accrued on the debt. Two weeks ago Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner publicly acknowledged that crime and insecurity figures were rising sharply, despite official figures showing that the country&#8217;s economy has grown year-on-year for eight successive years.</p>
<p><strong>Underwater cable to give Cuba high-speed internet access by 2011</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3328" title="chavezraul" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/chavezraul-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" />The governments of Cuba and Venezuela have announced that a project first disclosed in 2007 which will result in the laying of a 5,340 kilometer fiber-optic cable in the waters of the Caribbean Sea. The cable will connect the two nations and offering Cubans high-speed internet for the first time, will be completed by 2011. Alberto Rodríguez, Cuba&#8217;s Minister of IT and Communications, said on Friday that the cable is an important step in the strengthening of bilateral relations between the two countries.</p>
<p>He also added that the project would help Cuba to “tackle future developments” as well as greatly increasing connection speeds on an island where using the internet is painfully slow. Walter Roboredo, Vice President of Telecomunicaciones de Gran Caribe, S.A (Great Caribbean Telecommunications), the company that will carry out the legwork to make the US$70 million undertaking a reality, said that the cable will make Cuban internet connections 3,000 times faster than the present system. Due in principal to the crippling U.S.-imposed blockade of the island, renewed with gusto by Barack Obama shortly after taking office, Cuba currently has no broadband internet, and an expensive satellite service currently provides Cubans with web access, which is heavily restricted and censored by the government of Raúl Castro.</p>
<p>Roboredo said that in addition to the increase in speed, the new cable will cut telecommunications costs for the Cuban government by around 25%. Most Cubans have extremely limited home internet access at present, with a less restricted service offered exclusively to members of government as well as some professionals such as journalists and doctors. Hotels catering for tourists have computers with unrestricted web access, but speeds are excruciatingly slow and prices of up to US$9 per hour are well beyond the reach of most Cubans, who can now enter hotels and pay to use the facilities having been prohibited from doing so until 2008.</p>
<p>Under a 1990&#8242;s law designed to stimulate the nation&#8217;s economy following the devastating impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, foreign investment was permitted in Cuba&#8217;s hotel sector in order to boost tourism. Foreign companies are allowed to own up to 49% of any given hotel, with the government retaining a majority share in any enterprise. Foreign tourists flock to the island from Canada, Mexico and Europe, but the U.S. government has continued to force its citizens to seek permission which is granted only in exceptional circumstances to travel to Cuba. This cuts off a lucrative potential source of income for the island as part of an attempt to strangle the Cuban government into acquiescing to greater economic liberalisation and reparations for U.S.-registered companies which lost considerable assets when all foreign holdings in Cuba were nationalised following the 1959 revolution.</p>
<p><strong>Zelaya accuses U.S. government of preventing reconciliation in Honduras</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3329" title="zelaya" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/zelaya-205x300.jpg" alt="" width="205" height="300" />Former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, deposed by a 2009 coup d&#8217;état carried out by members of the Central American nation&#8217;s military, has blamed the United States&#8217; government for preventing political reconciliation in the country and criticised the Obama administration for “letting the coup go unpunished”. </p>
<p>Zelaya, who is currently living in exile with his family in the Dominican Republic, was speaking at a meeting with supporters and sympathisers held at an undisclosed location in the Nicaraguan capital Managua, where he also met with Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega.</p>
<p>The former Honduran leader said, “This position that the United States has taken over Honduras has done us a lot of damage, and is preventing reconciliation for the Honduran people. The United States gains nothing by supporting a process of right-wing violence in order to topple legitimate, progressive governments.”</p>
<p>Zelaya now heads the newly formed Executive Committee for the National Front of Popular Resistance for Honduras (FNRP), which refuses to recognise the sitting government of President Porfirio Lobo. The leadership of the new party was meeting with the deposed president in Nicaragua, where Zelaya said the search for peace in Honduras was “urgent”. He spoke of the need to bring about a normalisation of the country&#8217;s political system, “logically not overlooking the need to punish the human rights violations, the murders, and the persecution of the opposition which force many other Hondurans to live in exile.”</p>
<div class="mceTemp mceIEcenter">
<dl id="attachment_3330" class="wp-caption   aligncenter" style="width: 310px;">
<dt class="wp-caption-dt"><img title="hondurasbanner" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/hondurasbanner-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" /></dt>
<h5>This banner says: “We condemn the coup. We support the resistance of the Honduran people.”</h5>
</dl>
</div>
<p>The former president thanked Nicaraguan leader Ortega for offering to host the FNRP gathering and “opening his doors” to the group, and for continuing to refuse to recognise the new Honduran government despite pressure from the United States. Speaking of the Obama administration&#8217;s outright support for the new government in Honduras, which won praise from Lobo during the inaugural address given as he assumed the presidency, Zelaya lamented that “the impunity which we haven&#8217;t been able to resolve in Honduras is a bad example which emboldens armed and violent forces of the extreme right in other nations because they know that at the end of the day [the world powers] will leave them alone.” </p>
<p>His comments are particularly poignant in the wake of an attempted coup by high ranking members of the Ecuadorian military and police which threatened the government of President Rafael Correa last week.</p>
<p><strong>IN BRIEF</strong></p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3331" title="dilma" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/dilma1-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" /><strong>Brazil:</strong> Governing party candidate Dilma Rousseff is expected to take a comfortable victory as Brazilians vote in the second round of the country&#8217;s presidential election. </p>
<p>This comes in the wake of her successful first-round showing which placed the Workers&#8217; Party (PT) nominee in a direct second round run-off with former Sao Paulo state governor and Social Democratic Party (PSDB) candidate José Serra.</p>
<p>Despite envisaging a victory for President Lula da Silva&#8217;s party that would give Latin America&#8217;s most populous nation it&#8217;s first ever female president, surveys estimate that Serra will inherit 51% of first round votes cast for Green Party (PV) candidate Marina Silva, with Dilma projected to win support from just 22% of those who had voted for Silva last Sunday. 39% of those questioned said they would be backing the candidate Lula endorsed, a testament to the outgoing leader&#8217;s intractable popularity, and Rousseff sits as the strong favourite for the presidency among bookmakers.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-3332" title="Liu-Xiaobo" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Liu-Xiaobo.jpg" alt="" width="220" height="300" /><strong>Venezuela:</strong> President Hugo Chávez has rejected a communiqué sent this week by Venezuelan opposition politicians which celebrated the award of a Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo who is currently held as a political prisoner in China. The Venezuelan leader took the opportunity to endorse the government of Chinese premier Hu Jintao, and poured scorn on statements made by members of his national opposition which called China a “totalitarian” state which “violates human rights”.</p>
<p>Chávez ridiculed the statement, saying “this archipelago of extreme right-wing parties tells the Chinese government that it is totalitarian, that it violates human rights&#8230; Here is our message of solidarity with the Chinese government. Long live China!” He went on to call Xiaobo a “counterrevolutionary”, and endorsed his ongoing detention at the hands of the Chinese state for “violating that country&#8217;s laws”. </p>
<p>He also questioned the logic in Venezuelan opposition members speaking out over the political situation in China but “applauding the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, where there are children orphaned, men in prison, racism etc.” Liu Xiaobo was first imprisoned following his participation in the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising, during which it is estimated that between 400 and 800 Chinese civilians protesting in favour of governmental reform were killed by state forces.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3334" title="antiracismbolivia" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/antiracismbolivia-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /><strong>Bolivia:</strong> President Evo Morales this week announced the introduction of an Anti-Racist Law that will punish media outlets that publish material considered by the government to be racially inflammatory or offensive with fines. </p>
<p>“The time has come to finish with the practice of racism in Bolivia because it&#8217;s the most antidemocratic thing that exists in the world because it doesn&#8217;t respect the equality among citizens” said the president as the new law was announced.</p>
<p> Bolivia&#8217;s first indigenous head of state criticised newspapers that publish racist opinion columns for doing so “under the pretext of exercising their freedom of expression.” He called on journalists to make sure their work was used to inform people and not “for the purpose of misleading, much less of discriminating.” Several Bolivian journalists have gone on hunger strike in protest at the passage of the new law, with editor of Santa Cruz daily El Deber, one of the the country&#8217;s highest circulating newspapers, Pedo Rivero Jordán saying that “very bad things are happening in this country&#8230; I can&#8217;t just sit on my hands.”</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-3333" title="usprisonlatinos" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/usprisonlatinos-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /><strong>United States:</strong> Human rights organisations have warned that Latinos are the fastest growing group among the population of inmates on Death Row in the U.S., after figures released this week revealed that 383 of the 3,200 people currently awaiting execution in the country are of Latino origin. Rights groups have called attention to the fact that over 90% of those sentenced to death in the U.S. do not have adequate financial resources to appoint their own legal team, and that the undereducated and those from ethnic minority backgrounds are more likely to receive a death sentence.</p>
<p>In 1981, 4.6% of Death Row inmates were of Latino origin, with the figure having jumped to 11.74% by the start of 2010. Latinos are the fastest growing demographic group in the United States, and at current projections will become ethnic majorities in many U.S. states during this century, particularly in southern states which share a border with or are geographically close to Mexico. Capital punishment is legal in 35 U.S. states, with California currently home to the largest Death Row population of 697, followed by Texas where 337 people are waiting to be executed.</p>
<p><strong>Peru: </strong>At least 16 people are confirmed dead following a bus crash in the mountainous Huancavelica region of the country, after their vehicle plummeted into a 200-metre deep abyss whilst travelling from the town of Huancayo en route to the municipality of Pampas. The incident occurred on Saturday afternoon, and authorities fear a mechanical fault may have provoked the crash.</p>
<p><strong>Tom Kavanagh</strong>, a writer and activist based in Argentina, is Latin America correspondent for Ceasefire. His column on Latin American affairs appears every Monday.</p>
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		<title>Cuba &#8211; What Next?</title>
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		<description><![CDATA[After half a century as president of Cuba, Fidel Castro finally stepped down. What happens next? Rowan Lubbock analyses the history of Cuba and makes some sobering predictions.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>After half a century as president of Cuba, Fidel Castro finally stepped down.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><strong><br />
What happens next? Rowan Lubbock analyses the history of Cuba and makes some sobering predictions.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img title="Fidel Castro" src="http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/castro.jpg" alt="Fidel Castro 1959" width="331" height="189" /><span id="more-3"></span></p>
<p><strong><br />
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<p>The sheer flurry of recent speculation over the future prospects for a Cuba without Castro can seem almost overwhelming.</p>
<p>Much of the initial commentary in the West has consisted of exuberant victory calls, proclaiming a forthcoming of democracy and freedom. But it seems the Cuban people are rather less enthusiastic. Anthony DePalma of the New York Times (among others) has described ordinary Cubans as wary of “a savage capitalism” that seems poised to take away from them “the best houses, the best land, the best factories.” [1. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/weekinreview/24depalma.html?_r=1&amp;em&amp;ex=1204520400&amp;en=24186f02390ff1c9&amp;ei=5087%0A&amp;oref=slogin">Anthony DePalma, “A Future to Wince At”, New York Times, February 24, 2008"</a>] Cuba’s recent history sheds light on these contradictory views.</p>
<p>“Ensconced in his Communist-run island”, the Economist observes, “Castro has weathered ten American presidents and their economic embargo against him”. For many in the Third World, Cuba’s defiance of imperial domination has earned a level of respect and solidarity that is almost unparalleled, largely because: “Cuban Communism always differed from that of Eastern Europe in being the product of a national revolution, not of foreign conquest.”[2. <a href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10727865&amp;fsrc=RSS">The Economist, “Castro’s Legacy”, February 21, 2008</a>.]</p>
<p>Yet it would be a mistake to believe that Cuba has ever been an island truly unto itself.</p>
<p><strong>Interventions</strong><br />
Under Teddy Roosevelt’s rubric of the “proper policing of the world”, Cuba became a de facto US protectorate, establishing a façade of independence following the withdrawal of US troops in 1902. The risks associated with granting this small Caribbean island its autonomy were sufficiently hedged through the drafting of the Platt Amendment, which was inserted directly into the Cuban constitution and the permanent treaty between the two countries. This constitutional caveat permitted the United States the right to intervene in Cuban affairs for the sake of “maintain[ing]… a government adequate for the protection of life, property, and individual liberty”.[3. James R. Holmes, Theodore Roosevelt and World Order, (Washington: Potomac Books, Inc.) p.159.]</p>
<p>Roosevelt found an ideological ally in Tomas Estrada Palma, who was elected as Cuba’s first head of state in 1903. But trouble quickly brewed after Palma’s re-election in 1906, which received widespread accusations of fraud from both the Liberal party and the majority of Cuban peasants, workers and members of the armed forces. Acting out of fear that other imperial powers might intervene in Cuban affairs for the sake of protecting their own investments, the US invaded for a second time in 1906 by sending US warships and troops to pacify the “insurgents” and establish the “political stability” necessary for protecting American property.[4. ibid, p.164 – 5.]</p>
<p>Roosevelt, despite his stated preference for non-intervention, maintained that US intervention would swiftly occur if “the insurrectionary habit becomes confirmed in the Island”, citing the prerogative of US imperialism, “which has assumed the sponsorship before the civilised world for Cuba’s career as a nation.” This pattern in US-Cuban relations would remain a near constant until 1959, when a small band of guerrilla resistance fighters, lead by Fidel Castro, joined forces with the vast majority of Cubans, including important sections of the capitalist class and petty bourgeoisie, who had lost faith in Fulgencio Batista’s increasingly corrupt regime.[5. James Petras and Morris Morley, US Hegemony Under Siege: Class, Politics and Development in Latin America, (London, New York: Verso), p.111.]</p>
<p>During this tumultuous time the US was happy to see a smooth transition from Batista to a new, more popular government, provided it was capable of preserving the structural integrity of the Cuban state, which was central to the security of US investments. “In a crisis or period of political upheaval in the Third World,” point out James Petras and Morris Morley in their study, “the regime is expendable, the state is not”. But with the overthrow of Batista came the dismantling of the entire pre-revolutionary Cuban state. The infusion of a genuine revolutionary movement into the state structure of Cuba brought a decisive blow to US imperial designs.[6. See, Stephen J. Randall and Graeme S. Mount, The Caribbean Basin: An International History, (London, New York: Routledge), pp.118 – 9.]</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, the Eisenhower administration immediately sought to subvert the new state-regime. In 1960 the CIA orchestrated an invasion that was to be executed by anti-Castro Cuban nationals, which was vigorously taken up by the incoming Kennedy administration whose nadir saw the notorious Bay of Pigs invasion end in catastrophe, at least for Kennedy. With both overt and covert attacks yielding little result, Washington switched to a campaign of economic warfare that saw the Cuban economy almost completely cut off from the world market (apart from the Soviet Union). Writing in April 1960, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Lester Mallory concluded that the only way to ensure the downfall of Castro was “through disenchantment and disaffection based on economic dissatisfaction and hardship… [Using] every possible means… [the US should seek] to weaken the economic life of Cuba… to bring about hunger, desperation and [the eventual] overthrow of the government”.[7. Cited in, Louis A. Perez Jr., “Fear and Loathing of Fidel Castro: Sources of US Policy Toward Cuba, Journal of Latin American Studies, no. 34, 2008, p.242.]</p>
<p>Meanwhile on the island, the dream of bringing power and control back to the Cuban people was never entirely realised.</p>
<p><strong>Democracy</strong><br />
While Castro’s Cuba has been romanticised by many on the left as a bastion of worker power, the historical structure of Cuban politics tells a different story. The debate and formation of policy at first stayed within a tight network of ‘declasses’ and sectors of the petty bourgeoisie, and not with those the new revolutionary regime depended on for support: workers and peasants.[8. See Chris Harman, “Cuba behind the myths”, International Socialism, Summer, 2006, p.84.] Despite this odd mix of revolutionary and capitalist interests inhabiting the same cabinet, Castro’s tight control of policy formation within his own revolutionary clique frustrated the more conservative elements in government, who eventually resigned one by one to find more lucrative pursuits in the United States. In the end, the most crucial decisions concerning social, political and economic affairs consistently flowed from the top down, without affording any political space in which the Cuban people might organise and implement their collective will.</p>
<p>After turning its back on US capitalism for the first time in Cuba’s history, the revolutionary government was eager to begin the process of rapid industrialisation, in the hope that Cuba could break itself from the shackles of cash-crop exportation. Ideological convergence (as well as the near absolute US blockade of world trade) made the Soviet Union a natural partner in Cuba’s economic development, giving Havana some room for manoeuvre in diversifying its industrial development.</p>
<p>Yet by 1963, Castro had already run up a balance of payments deficit with the Soviet Union of more than $300 million, mainly due to the government’s miscalculated central planning and a drastic fall in world sugar prices. In the face of such a crisis, Castro announced a return to the specialisation of sugar production, in clear conflict with the stated goals of the revolutionary movement to break Cuba’s dependence on single-commodity exportation.[9. William M. Leogrande and Julie M. Thomas, “Cuba’s Quest for Economic Independence”, Journal of Latin American Studies, no. 34, 2008, p.327]</p>
<p>In the end, Cuba could not escape the very nature of its standing within a capitalist world economy – it was simply too small, underdeveloped and tightly integrated into world markets to successfully pursue policies of rapid industrial development. Having struck a decisive blow against the old system of oppression, the Cuban people were consistently denied any chance of establishing a truly collective system of autonomous worker associations that would be capable of responding to popular needs. Free speech was curtailed. Criticism of the revolutionary government was, and is, punishable by imprisonment or worse.</p>
<p>This tragic narrative of strangulation and subversion from the outside, and the centralisation of political power from the inside, has marred Cuba ever since.</p>
<p><strong>Prospects</strong><br />
But now that the torch has been passed from one Castro to another, what are the immediate prospects for Cuba today? Two issues immediately emerge. Firstly, Cuba will very quickly have to learn how to swim among the deadly currents of global neoliberalism. Secondly, as a concomitant effect of this ‘liberalisation’, the Cuban people will likely see the continual economic restructuring of their country confined to a tiny policymaking clique, made up of elements from the old guard and larger foreign capitalist interests, and possibly leading to a further degradation of the social fabric that began after the end of the Cold War.</p>
<p>During Cuba’s ‘special period’ in the early 1990s, the economy opened up to global financial flows and other market reforms, leading to a sharp rise in unemployment and a drop in nutritional consumption. Income inequality almost doubled from the mid 1980s to 1999.[10. Harman, “Cuba behind the myths”, p.102.] According to the Cuban sociologist Mayra Espina, three factors continue to aggravate these regressive developments: “growing income differentials; an increasing disparity between the regions; and a new social hierarchy based on material wealth, the symbol of success”.[11. <a href="http://mondediplo.com/2004/06/13cuba">Janette Habel, “Cuba: What will happen after Castro?”, Le Monde Diplomatique</a>]</p>
<p>Despite this painful experience, the US State Department remains adamant that without further exposure to the global neoliberal framework, Cuba will have no chance of reducing its crippling level of hard currency debt, standing at roughly $11 billion. The report ‘Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba’ notes that addressing the debt “will allow Cuba to re-enter world capital markets… Should Cuba need debt relief from its Paris Club creditors, Cuba will likely first need an IMF program.” This will no doubt entail a near total marginalisation of the population for the sake of Western capital and financial speculators. As Anne Krueger, the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, has argued, an “efficient” model of sovereign debt restructuring should “draw… on the principles of well-designed corporate bankruptcy regimes”[12. <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=736923">Cited in, Larry Cata Backer, Cuba and the IMF: Conflicts over the Nature of the State and Sovereign Debt in the Emerging Global Economic System, p.10</a>] Anyone familiar with the modus operandi of corporate restructuring will surely expect a rapid rise in unemployment, depressed wages and lower social spending within Cuban society, should the IMF be allowed to sink its teeth in.</p>
<p>In keeping with the Castro brothers’ preference for market reform over political reform, Cuba is unlikely to see any substantial movement towards a more participatory political system, notwithstanding the recent adoption of two human rights agreements with the UN.</p>
<p>As Time magazine explains, Washington should “establish [with Cuba] the kind of diplomatic relations [it] has with other iron-fisted regimes, like those in China and Saudi Arabia”, in the hope that it will be able “to exert some direct influence on the island’s economy and politics”. This widely shared sentiment among Western elites nullifies the predictably empty rhetoric espousing greater political freedom for ordinary Cubans. As the Wall Street Journal recently commented, “Raúl is expected to attempt to move the country toward a more competitive economic system, on the China model, something he has supported in the past.”[13. WSJ Europe, “49 years of Fidel”, February 20, 2008, p.A14] If China is intended as a model of social development, the Cuban people have good reason to be weary.</p>
<p>The ‘enlightened despotism’ of Cuba’s Cold War past is likely to soon give way to a new ‘enlightened polyarchy’, which seeks to support the imperatives of competitive accumulation. When Fidel Castro addressed the UN General Assembly in September 1960, he boldly proclaimed that, “imperialist financial capital is a prostitute that cannot seduce us”. Yet with the twin transitory features of an increasing openness to the world economy, and a lack of popular power, it would seem that the seduction of Cuba is a very real and dangerous possibility. The Cuban people need our sympathy and solidarity now more than ever.</p>
<h3>References</h3>
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